Ezelman · Regulatory Radar
Statuses checked 23 October 2026Regulatory Radar: milestones before 2029, by supervisor
The Regulatory Radar as a print sheet: 23 supervisory milestones across the EU, UK, US and GCC, 17 dated to end-2028 and six undated, as of 23 October 2026.
Q4 2026 4
- EU ECB priorities 2027-29 Nov-Dec 2026, expected
- EU Stress test: final method Q4 2026, expected
- EU ECB revised OSI guide End-2026, expected
- EU Op-risk RTS consultation ends
Q1 2027 6
- EU SREP Guidelines apply
- EU FRTB applies, relief to 2029
- EU Output floor 60%
- EU Stress test launch Jan 2027, expected
- EU EBA reporting 4.4.1 Early 2027, expected
- UK Basel 3.1 applies
Q2 2027 nothing dated
Q3 2027 2
- EU Stress test results Jul-Aug 2027, expected
- EU Simplified reporting Sep 2027, proposed
Q4 2027 1
- EU AI Act Annex III applies
2028 4
- EU Output floor 65%
- UK Market-risk IMA live
- US SCB two-year averaging 2028
- GCC SAMA output floor complete 2028
No date set 6
- EU CCF RTS adoption No date
- EU IRB model-change RTS No date
- UK PRA CP9/26 statement No date
- US Basel III endgame rule No date
- US G-SIB surcharge rule No date
- GCC CBUAE final reforms No date
- Date fixed in a published text
- Expected or proposed
- No date set
- Statuses as of 23 October 2026
| Milestone | Jurisdiction | When | Status | Primary source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2026 | ||||
| 1. ECB supervisory priorities 2027-2029 | EU | Expected Nov to Dec 2026 | Expected | ECB Banking Supervision, supervisory priorities |
| 2. EBA 2027 stress test: final methodology and templates | EU | Expected Q4 2026 | Expected | EBA, EU-wide stress testing |
| 3. ECB revised guide to on-site inspections | EU | Promised by end-2026 | Expected | ECB press release, 26 June 2026 |
| 4. Operational-risk RTS consultation closes (EBA/CP/2026/18) | EU | Date fixed | EBA press release, 26 August 2026 | |
| Q1 2027 | ||||
| 5. Revised SREP Guidelines apply (EBA/GL/2026/06) | EU | Date fixed | EBA press release, 26 June 2026 | |
| 6. FRTB own-funds requirements apply, relief to end-2029 | EU | Date fixed | Delegated Regulation (EU) 2026/1221 | |
| 7. Output floor steps to 60% (Art. 465 CRR) | EU | Date fixed | Regulation (EU) 2024/1623, Art. 465 CRR | |
| 8. EBA 2027 stress test: launch and scenarios | EU | Expected Jan 2027 | Expected | EBA, EU-wide stress testing |
| 9. EBA reporting release 4.4.1, the simplification package | EU | Expected early 2027 | Expected | EBA press release, 12 October 2026 |
| 10. Basel 3.1 applies (PRA PS1/26) | UK | Date fixed | PRA PS1/26, 20 January 2026 | |
| Q2 2027: nothing dated | ||||
| Q3 2027 | ||||
| 11. EBA 2027 stress test results | EU | Expected end-Jul to Aug 2027 | Expected | EBA, EU-wide stress testing |
| 12. Simplified reporting framework: first reference date | EU | Sep 2027, as proposed | Proposed | EBA press release, 12 October 2026 |
| Q4 2027 | ||||
| 13. AI Act Annex III high-risk obligations apply | EU | Date fixed | Regulation (EU) 2026/1744 | |
| 2028 | ||||
| 14. Output floor steps to 65% (Art. 465 CRR) | EU | Date fixed | Regulation (EU) 2024/1623, Art. 465 CRR | |
| 15. Internal model approach for market risk goes live (PS1/26) | UK | Date fixed | PRA PS1/26, 20 January 2026 | |
| 16. Stress capital buffer set on a two-year average | US | From 2028 | Date fixed | Federal Reserve press release, 30 September 2026 |
| 17. SAMA output-floor phase-in completes | GCC | 2028 | Date fixed | SAMA announcement, 28 December 2022 |
| No date set | ||||
| 18. CCF RTS (EBA/RTS/2025/06): Commission adoption | EU | Final draft 18 Aug 2025; no adoption date | No date set | EBA press release, 18 August 2025 |
| 19. IRB model-change RTS (EBA/RTS/2026/05): Commission adoption | EU | Final draft 30 Mar 2026; no adoption date | No date set | EBA press release, 30 March 2026 |
| 20. PRA policy statement on CP9/26, IMA adjustments | UK | Consultation closed 18 Sep 2026; not scheduled | No date set | PRA CP9/26, 19 June 2026 |
| 21. Basel III endgame final rule | US | Comments closed 18 Jun 2026; no compliance date | No date set | Federal Register, 27 March 2026 |
| 22. G-SIB surcharge final rule | US | Comments closed 18 Jun 2026; final rule pending | No date set | Federal Reserve Board memo, 19 March 2026 |
| 23. CBUAE final Basel III reforms | GCC | Timeline not yet published | No date set | CBUAE Rulebook, Standards for Capital Adequacy |
Each edition is redrawn from the primary texts.
One email a month: what moved, what lands next, and the source.