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Curated analysis of Basel IV, CRR3, ECB inspection trends, and strategic regulatory developments impacting Tier-One banks across Europe, the UK, the US, and the GCC.

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Language · EN
Radar deep-dives are published in English — the working language of the SSM and EBA. French edition of the top five pieces scheduled for Q3 2026. One-to-one French briefings available on request — write to the founder.
Signature one-pager · PDF

Ezelman 2026–2030 Regulatory Thesis

The 8-page CRO-facing view. Binding constraints, Pillar 2G trajectory, CRR3 output-floor scenarios.

Download (email required) →
Signature one-pager · coming soon

CFO Capital-Impact Case — material CET1 unlock

Anonymised European G-SIB. The qualitative shape of the levers, the RWA move, and the ECB conversation that closed it out. Mandate-specific figures withheld; public-data calibration on request.

Publishing Q3 2026

What moved this month across EU, UK, US & GCC

Four jurisdictions. One discipline. Every item below is a live file we are tracking on behalf of our clients.

🇪🇺 European Union
NEW · EBA 2027 EU-wide Stress Test — draft methodology
Consultation closed 10 Jul 2026 · industry consolidated responses land through Aug
CRR3 · Output-floor phase-in (50% → 72.5%)
Binding · Q1 2027 to 2030
RTS on CCF — final EBA package
Published · Apr 2026
RTS on Starting Point of Stress Test
Consultation closed · 10 Jul 2026 · final ITS expected Q3/Q4 2026 · applies from Sep 2027 reference dates
ECB Supervisory Priorities 2026–28
Two headline priorities · JST scrutiny concentrates on credit, ops/ICT, CRR3 readiness
ECB Streamlining of Supervisory Guidance
26 Jun 2026 · ~130 reviewed · ~40 discontinued
Reverse Geopolitical Stress — EBA
Pillar 2 conversation · rising
🇬🇧 United Kingdom
PRA Basel 3.1 · effective 1 Jan 2027
Final rules published (PS1/26, Jan 2026) · go-live 1 Jan 2027 · IMA adjustments under consultation (CP9/26, Jun 2026)
CP9/26 · IMA adjustments for market risk
Consultation to 18 Sep 2026 · UK IMA go-live 1 Jan 2028
CP16/22 · Market Risk (FRTB) final rules
IMA approval window open
SS1/23 · Model Risk Management
First PRA reviews under way
BoE Concurrent Stress Test 2026
Exploratory — climate + geopolitical
Consumer Duty — second-phase FCA review
Firm enforcement cases active
🇺🇸 United States
Basel III Endgame — revised proposal
Joint agencies · re-proposal live
Fed SCB recalibration
Averaging rule final
CCAR 2026 scenarios
Severe recession + CRE shock
OCC Heightened Standards — TPRM focus
Enforcement trend
G-SIB surcharge recalibration
Methodology under review
🇦🇪 GCC
CBUAE Basel IV · phased adoption
Output floor and FRTB aligned to Basel
SAMA ICAAP 2026 guidance
Pillar 2 granularity tightening
QCB stress-test framework refresh
Consultation phase
CBB Operational Resilience Module
Impact tolerance reporting
GCC-wide AML/CFT alignment
FATF evaluation feedback loop
Watching ECB geopolitical scenario exercise — aggregate results due summer 2026. Our read on the exercise: the 4 mistakes the JST flags →

The Radar — now through 2028

Hover any event for detail. Rings are time horizons; colour bands are jurisdictions.

ECB / SSM

ECB On-Site Inspection Trends: What We See in 2026

Based on 10+ recent inspections across Europe, the key themes ECB teams are focusing on — and how to prepare before the inspection letter arrives. Practical readiness frameworks.

February 2026
CRR3 / RTS

RTS on CCF: The Hidden Capital Multiplier Under CRR3

A practitioner's analysis of the revised CCF framework under CRR3 — impact on off-balance sheet exposures, SA-CR calibration, IRB own-estimate CCF floors, and quantitative impact analysis for a €50bn+ balance sheet.

April 2026
EBA / STRESS TESTING Consultation closed · 10 Jul 2026

RTS on Stress Test Starting Point — Impacts & Challenges

Final ITS expected Q3/Q4 2026 · applies from September 2027 reference dates. Reshapes how the stress-test reference balance sheet is anchored — scope, reconciliation to COREP/FINREP, NPE classification, and material implications for projection engines and CET1 trajectories under adverse scenarios.

Updated 15 July 2026
EBA / 2027 EXERCISE

The 2027 EBA EU-wide stress test — a practitioner walkthrough for 2026

Methodology rails carried forward from 2023 and 2025, ESRB scenario anchors, starting points from FY2025 Pillar 3, depletion bands calibrated on public data, management-action discipline, and how the JST reads the output. The preparation year is now.

April 2026
EBA / RTS

RTS on IRB Model Assessment: Materiality of Model Changes

Analysis of the EBA Regulatory Technical Standards on materiality assessment for IRB model changes — when model modifications trigger a full re-approval process vs. notification, and practical implications for banks managing large model inventories.

February 2026
EBA / GEOPOLITICAL

Reverse Geopolitical Stress Tests: What the EBA is Quietly Building

Geopolitical risk has moved from an ICAAP footnote to a live driver of the supervisory agenda. The reverse geopolitical stress test is the part most banks have not yet understood — scenario archetypes, transmission architecture, and the governance the EBA actually expects.

April 2026
Reporting series · 1/3

COREP under CRR3: What Changes in the Prudential Return

Part 1 of the reporting-rebuild series. Review of the EBA Implementing Technical Standards on supervisory reporting under CRR3 — COREP template changes, Output Floor disclosures, FRTB reporting, and the transition timeline.

January 2026
Reporting series · 2/3

FINREP under Basel IV / CRR3: The Quiet Half of the Reporting Rebuild

Part 2. IFRS 9 stage-migration, FINREP ↔ COREP ↔ Pillar 3 three-way reconciliation, the ESG overlay, and the EBA data-quality regime. The half of the programme that loses the budget fight — and shouldn't.

April 2026
Reporting series · 3/3

AnaCredit: The Granular Credit Dataset Supervisors Actually Use

Part 3. ~95 attributes per loan under ECB/2016/867, how JSTs and the SSM triangulate AnaCredit against FINREP and COREP, and what that means for data lineage, IRB validation and on-site inspection.

April 2026
ECB / SSM

ECB Supervisory Priorities 2026: What Banks Should Focus On

Breakdown of the ECB's published supervisory priorities for 2026 — credit risk management under macro uncertainty, operational resilience, and CRR3 implementation readiness. Practical recommendations for banks in the SSM perimeter.

December 2025
CRR3

CRR3 Implementation: What Banks Must Do Before January 2027

A practitioner's timeline for the remaining CRR3 milestones — SA-CR parallel runs, Output Floor phase-in, and FRTB reporting. Critical deadlines and execution roadmap for the home stretch.

March 2026
GCC

Basel IV in the Gulf: Readiness Assessment for GCC Banks

How GCC central banks are adapting Basel IV implementation timelines and what Tier-1 regional banks should prioritise in 2026–2027. Regional regulatory roadmap and compliance priorities.

January 2026
ECB / SSM

ECB streamlining of supervisory guidance: what survives, what gets rewritten

The ECB reviewed ~130 supervisory publications on 26 June 2026 and discontinued ~40. The OSI/IMI and risk-data guides are queued for rewrite by end-2026 — a delta review for every live remediation and inspection-prep programme.

July 2026
PRA / FRTB

PRA CP9/26: the market-risk IMA just became more attainable

The June 2026 consultation loosens PLAT and risk-factor eligibility and restructures NMRFs ahead of the UK IMA go-live on 1 January 2028. Desks that shelved an IMA application on FRTB economics should re-run the numbers.

July 2026
Stress test

EBA 2027 EU-wide Stress Test — Draft Methodology Consultation

Released 11 June 2026: 55 % data-point cut, first-ever climate module, 63 banks in scope. Consultation closed 10 July; industry-association consolidated responses land through August — what supervisors will read in them, and what the 2028 SREP inherits.

July 2026

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