ECB inspections · the Ezelman method

An inspection is decided before the inspectors arrive.

We have run the bank's side of the room. Scroll through the 120 days that decide whether the follow-up letter costs you capital, and what we do on each of them.

D-120 · Foundations

The load-bearing walls are never rebuilt under fire.

Governance, three lines of defence, model inventory, data lineage. If these are not standing at D-120, the inspection is already a remediation programme; our first week tells you which.

Ezelman estimate Range for a material SSM finding (F3 or F4). Illustrative, not supervisory guidance.

D-60 · Readiness drill

We inspect you before the inspectors do.

A full mock inspection sixty days before kickoff: evidence retrieval timed in hours, interviews rehearsed, one evidence taxonomy across credit, model, data and IT, every document pre-cleared by legal, risk and finance.

Foundations · Open dialogue · Readiness drill · Taxonomy · Response line · Evidence vault · Supervisory narrative · Sustain: eight positions held from D-120 to the follow-up letter. The FORTRESS method.

D-0 to D+90 · On site

One response line. Zero contradictions.

We sit in the room, on the bank's side: daily coordination with the inspection team, a real-time reading of every request, prioritisation and escalation. Every answer comes from the evidence vault; none is improvised.

800+inspector requests on our last IRB credit-risk inspection, 95% answered within 48 hoursCase record, 2026
Draft report · written comments

Accept unambiguously. Contest with evidence. Commit to decision dates.

Each finding gets four fields: the bank's position, a dated commitment with a named executive owner, a Board milestone, the evidence file. The inspection team accepted this structure at first review.

Written comments on the draft inspection report · IRB [portfolio redacted] · strictly confidential Finding 01 · Severity F3 (high) “The mortgage IRB model's PD calibration relies on a reference dataset that does not adequately capture the 2012–2013 downturn vintage.”
Bank's position: Accepted without reservation. Remediation: augmented reference dataset by [redacted]; one-off prudential margin applied with immediate effect; Chief Model Risk Officer named owner; Board Risk Committee progress reports at [redacted].
See the full specimen letter
Close · the outcome

No supervisory capital adjustment attributable to the inspected scope.

Our most recent IRB inspection closed in 2026: a European G-SIB, nine months from notification to close, under 20 findings in the draft report, two corrective action plans. P2R is set on the whole SREP, not per inspection, so the record covers only the inspected scope.

The remediation load is real: about 12,000 open supervisory measures across significant banks at end-2025, roughly 100 per bank (ECB, 6 October 2026).

Ezelman estimate Peer Pillar 2 add-on (a P2R effect), in bps of RWA, across inspections observed 2023 to 2025; no supervisory statistic is published.

An ECB inspection is decided before kickoff. We run the bank's side; on inspections we supported, no Pillar 2 add-on was attributable to the inspected scope.

The walk-away clause

If your data, governance or executive sponsorship is not ready, we tell you before the engagement, not after. If we cannot meet the standard, we recommend someone who can.

20 yearsBank capital and regulatory risk, on the bank side and in Big-4 advisoryFounder profile, 2005 to date
50+1Senior-led mandatesFootnote 1; Ezelman mandates since 2020 on Recent Mandates
9Jurisdictions: France, Italy, Spain, Germany, Netherlands, United Kingdom, Saudi Arabia, UAE, QatarMandates delivered in Europe and the Gulf
2Offices: Paris (HQ) and DubaiEzelman SASU, founded 2020

1 Senior-led mandates across the founder's career and Ezelman; Ezelman's own mandates since 2020 are on Recent Mandates. One partner; a bench of senior practitioners, Director level and above, engaged per mandate.

Typical mandates EUR 250k to 1.5m · senior-only delivery

Mandates for G-SIBs · SSM-supervised banks · GCC Tier-1 banks

Recent mandates

Three mandates live in 2026; three of the five on the case record.

In progress · 2026

Completed

Their on-site inspection expertise is practical, senior, and effective. They don't advise from the sidelines. They sit with you in the room, negotiate with the inspector, and own the findings line by line.Client, European G-SIB

Client references are available on request, with the client's consent.

All case studies
Capital headroom · FY2025

The trigger, not the CET1 ratio, decides what a bank can distribute.

Six large EU banks, all SSM-supervised: four G-SIBs (BNP Paribas, Santander, Société Générale, Deutsche Bank) and two O-SIIs (BBVA, UniCredit). Four are on our CET1 headroom tracker today.

ExhibitFY2025 disclosures · reviewed 25 October 2026

Deutsche Bank reports the second-highest CET1 ratio of these four and only the third-highest headroom.

Headroom is the FY2025 CET1 ratio less an illustrative CET1 MDA trigger: 4.5% Pillar 1 + the CET1 share of P2R + the combined buffer, from disclosed P2R and buffers. P2G sits above the trigger, outside it.

CET1 headroom above the illustrative CET1 MDA trigger, FY2025, four large EU banks UniCredit: CET1 14.7 percent against an illustrative trigger of about 9.5 percent, headroom about 520 basis points. Santander: 13.5 against about 9.8, about 370. Deutsche Bank: 14.2 against about 10.6, about 360. BNP Paribas: 12.6 against about 10.3, about 230. A dashed gold line at 200 basis points marks Ezelman's reading of where AT1 coupons become a board question under stress. 0 200 400 600 bps UniCredit CET1 14.7% · trigger ~9.5% ~520 bps Santander CET1 13.5% · trigger ~9.8% ~370 bps Deutsche Bank CET1 14.2% · trigger ~10.6% ~360 bps BNP Paribas CET1 12.6% · trigger ~10.3% ~230 bps 200 bps · below it, AT1 coupons become a board question under stress
Source: FY2025 Pillar 3 disclosures and results releases, via the Ezelman CET1 headroom tracker. MDA triggers are Ezelman calculations, illustrative; the 200 bps line is Ezelman's reading. The cohort read scores all six on distance to the hard minimum, EBA 2025 fully-loaded stress depletion (Table A2) and P2R level: directional, not a ranking.Ezelman estimate

the H2 2026 refresh of the six-bank cohort read is in preparation on the Q2 2026 disclosure round; publication date to be announced.

Regulatory radar

Eight dated milestones before 2029 move the capital stack; two are undated.

Supervisory milestones Snapshot reviewed 25 October 2026
Supervisory timeline from Q4 2026 to 2028 with dated EU, UK, US and GCC milestones, and two items with no date set Today 25 October 2026. EBA 2027 stress-test final methodology expected Q4 2026; revised SREP Guidelines apply 1 January 2027 alongside PRA Basel 3.1 and EU FRTB own funds; EBA 2027 stress test launches January 2027 with results expected end-July or August 2027; CRR3 output floor steps to 65 percent on 1 January 2028. Shown after the dated axis, with no date set: US Basel III Endgame final rule and dates pending; CBUAE final reforms timeline not yet published. Q4 26 Q1 27 Q2 27 Q3 27 Q4 27 Q1 28 Q2 28 Q3 28 Q4 28 DATE NOT SET TODAY US · Fed SCB: 2025 requirements hold until 20272026 results (24 Jun 2026) do not reset SCBs EU · EBA 2027 ST final methodology, expected Q4 2026 · revised ECB OSI guide, promised by end-2026EU · op-risk RTS CP/2026/18 closes 31 Dec 2026 · ECB 2027-29 priorities due Q4 2026 EU · 1 Jan 2027: revised SREP Guidelines apply (EBA/GL/2026/06)UK · PRA Basel 3.1 applies · EU · FRTB own funds apply (relief to end-2029) EU · EBA 2027 ST launch and ESRB scenario, expected Jan 202763 banks · first climate module (draft methodology, 11 Jun 2026) GCC · SAMA ICAAP cycle · CBUAE thematic reviewsthrough 2027 EU · EBA 2027 stress-test results feed the SREP 2027 decisionsexpected end-July or August 2027 · P2G applicable from 1 Jan 2028 UK · BoE bank capital stress test2027, expected (biennial cycle) EU · CRR3 output floor steps to 65%1 Jan 2028 · Ezelman reading: first binding step for most IRB banks US · Basel III Endgame: final rule and dates pendingno compliance dates in the Mar 2026 re-proposal GCC · CBUAE Basel III final reforms: timeline not yet publishedSAMA live since 1 Jan 2023 · QCB since 1 Jan 2024
  1. To 2027 · US Fed SCBs held until 2027.
  2. Q4 2026 · EU EBA 2027 final methodology expected; revised OSI guide and 2027-2029 priorities due.
  3. 1 Jan 2027 · EU, UK Revised SREP Guidelines, Basel 3.1 and FRTB own funds apply.
  4. Jan 2027 · EU EBA 2027 stress test launch, expected.
  5. 2027 · GCC SAMA ICAAP cycle; CBUAE thematic reviews.
  6. Jul-Aug 2027 · EU Stress-test results expected; they feed the 2027 SREP decisions.
  7. 2027 · UK BoE capital stress test, expected.
  8. 1 Jan 2028 · EU Output floor steps to 65%.
  9. No date · US Basel III Endgame final rule pending.
  10. No date · GCC CBUAE final reforms timeline not yet published.
Dates as published; "expected" where the final text is pending.Open the live radar

If an inspection is on the horizon, start the clock now.

Readiness work pays most 6 to 12 months before kickoff; the 120 days before kickoff are the minimum. Already under inspection? We typically mobilise within 48 hours.

The founder on every call. Prefer to read first? Request the 2026-2030 Regulatory Thesis (8 pages, email required).

Hannan MohammadHannan MohammadFounder and Managing Partner, Ezelman
The monthly radarCRR3, ECB inspection trends and stress-test analysis, monthly.